Which U.S. Metros Most Likely to Withstand Natural Or Economic Disaster?

Which U.S. metro region is most likely to come out of the next economic recession, natural disaster or other regional “shock” relatively unscathed?

According to new research at the University at Buffalo, Washington, D.C, is a very good place to be, while major cities like Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston, Seattle and Pittsburgh also fare well on the list–but Los Angeles, Miami and Las Vegas do not.

Rochester, Minnesota, tops the list. However, College Station-Bryan, Texas, would not be so lucky. As the release below indicates, these two regions are ranked first and last, respectively, by a new online tool measuring more than 360 U.S. metros for their “regional resilience,” or capacity to weather acute and chronic stresses ranging from gradual economic decline to rapid population gains to earthquakes and floods.

The Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), developed by Kathryn A. Foster, director of the Regional Institute, a research and public policy center of the University at Buffalo, produces a single statistic for each region based on its performance across 12 economic, socio-demographic and community connectivity indicators. Foster developed the index as part of Building Resilient Regions, a national network of experts on metropolitan regions funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and administered by UC Berkeley. (Read More . . .)

RCI Ranking

The RCI ranks metropolitan regions by their overall resilience capacity z-score, a statistic of variance measured in standard deviations away from the metropolitan average (see FAQs for detailed explanation). The RCI then categorizes regions by quintile as having Very High, High, Medium, Low, or Very Low resilience capacity. The top-ranked metropolitan region is Rochester, MN, a region averaging 1.23 standard deviations above the all-metropolitan average in resilience capacity. Ranked lowest is College Station-Bryan, TX, which averages 1.66 standard deviations below the all-metropolitan average for the indicators in the RCI. (Read More . . .)

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