A collaborative study by researchers of the University of Haifa and the New Jersey Institute of Technology reveals what factors can predict the survival or demise of online communities.
more heterogeneous the community of an online chat channel, the more chances the channel has to survive over time. This has been concluded in a new joint study carried out by researchers of the University of Haifa and the New Jersey Institute of Technology. “This study has shown that an essentially social characteristic significantly influences the survival chances of an online community,” says Dr. Daphne Raban of the University of Haifa who took part in the study.
The study, headed by Dr. Quentin Jones of the New Jersey Institute of Technology with Dr. Mihai Moldovan of NJIT and Dr. Raban, aimed to examine what factors could best predict the chances of an online community to survive over time. Researchers have previously claimed that there are too many variables influencing the survival or demise of such channels and that there is therefore no way of testing it, and earlier studies have primarily focused on group size and activity.
The current study included an analysis of social characteristics, such as the group’s homogeneity and heterogeneity. A group is considered homogeneous when its member turnover is small – namely, when the members who established the group are still the main members after some time. A group is considered heterogeneous when it has turnover and new members are continuously joining it.
A sample 282 chat channels all “born” on the same month was used for survival analysis which explored the relationship between the overall user activity in each channel at its inception and the channel’s life expectancy. The researchers carried out the survival analysis over the course of six months after “birth”. A chat channel was considered “born” when at least three members had exchanged at least four messages in 20 minutes. It was considered “dead” when it had zero activity for four weeks.
The researchers observed the influences of variables at four points of time: two hours after “birth”; on the channel’s first day of activity; over its first week of activity; and over its first two weeks of activity.
Results show that the variable that best predicts the chances of a community to survive is its level of heterogeneity: the greater the member turnover, the higher the chances that the group will sustain itself over time.
On the other hand, the number of members and the number of actual message posters do not predict the chances of survival.
According to the current study, another reliable predictor is the number of messages that are posted between members of an online community. This number does not have much significance over the first two hours of the group’s existence, but the higher the number of messages between members over the following three time phases, the higher the chances of the community’s survival over time.
The study also revealed that if the ratio between the number of messages and the number of members in a group remains the same after two weeks of the community’s activity, the chances of “death” are higher, while an irregular ratio predicts survival. It should be noted that neither an increasing ratio of messages between members nor a decreasing ratio were found to influence the chances of survival.
“The present study shows that prediction of an online community’s survival chances cannot be based on quantitative data relating to the size of the group or even to its growth rate alone. A social predictor, on the other hand, can much better predict its chances,” concludes Dr. Raban.
Waste of Money – Study Fail
Facebook nor Twitter have a focus on chatting abilities. In fact, I do not use the Facebook or the Twitter 3rd party chatting software.
AOL, MySpace. PlanetOut and other dying or dead services have had chatting as a major element of their branding. By the results of this study AOL should be on top. AOL was all about chatting, it was the mother of all chatting.
This just shows you that technical studies are completely worthless. Technology is ever changing and slowly users are moving towards simplicity, anonymous and productivity as their focus in tech uses.
Most users will be moving towards a cloud environment which will allow for social interactions, but on an more lineal level. Collaboration, business and real family/friends connections are going to be more important than shared interests.
Chat rooms had served their purpose. The most chat room users are:
- Sub Culture
- Health Specific Support
- Technical
The sub cultures, especially the gay/lesbian community have made chatting and online communities second to the geeks. Before the 1990′s if you were gay/lesbian you had to move to the big city meccas to find love, friendship and support. If you didn’t move you turned online for a connection, sex and finding love – all behind a white keyboard. As the global mankind moves towards a more intellectual understanding and acceptance gay meccas have died (read more . . .).
People can live anywhere in the world (except Vatican City, small sections of the Caribbean and Africa) including small town USA openly and honestly. Which means that those chat rooms have served their purpose and now it is about building a local community. It is about being part of a community, not specifically limited to a sexual preference. Barbecues are no longer limited heterosexuals– now neighborhoods are slowly filling with the rich diversity and strengthening the economic and social moral fibers.
The geeks still have a strong claim on chat rooms, but the focus has changed. It still is about sharing information, but that has moved into dynamic information via forums and groups. Chat rooms have been slowly converting into media commentary. Television programs, Live podcast and radio now have simultaneously chat room commenting (good, bad and riffs) throughout the program. Most of the chat rooms continue conversation long after the program is over. But these are enhancing chat rooms. These are there to further the entertainment factor whether is be a healthy debate or more information, NOT to develop a social network.
The internet has opened up a whole new meaning to medical support. Those with any medical concern or issue can find a group online. Although, I wonder if it is helpful and positive as we think? I find that when I faced a serious medical issue – I turned to the online support groups. I actually found them downers. For every positive message there was an overwhelming responses in negative. It became a venting session rather than a support group. I decided to not ever turn to a medical support group online ever again. I needed a human hug and information — not other people’s baggage. Seriously, medical issue chat rooms bad!
But through all my chatting software, updates and social networking . . . nothing beats a real-life interaction. Nothing.
The novelty of chat rooms will slowly wean away and leave users who have no desire to join the human race. The pale skin users will to continue to hide behind a keyboard and partake in virtual hugs, sex and companionship.
Please don’t let it be you. If you have to have an online chat, do it as your local coffee shop and every once in awhile — buy someone a cup. It might be me.
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